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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."